Geopolitical tensions are actively reshaping trade routes, forcing importers to prioritize supply chain security. This dynamic, coupled with intensifying food demand, elevates potash’s strategic importance for ensuring future agricultural productivity on limited available land.
Chicago, Nov. 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The global potash market size was valued at US$ 63.12 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 97.92 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.0% during the forecast period 2025–2033.
An analysis of the global potash market reveals a significant demand acceleration. This growth is fundamentally linked to global food security imperatives and the critical need for soil nutrient replenishment after prolonged under-application. Moreover, the economic viability of Muriate of Potash (MOP) relative to other primary nutrients provides a strong incentive for its use. Consequently, favorable agricultural commodity prices are empowering farmers in primary consumption zones to invest in maximizing yields, which directly stimulates potash consumption.
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The quantitative data underscores this demand-driven expansion. World potash consumption is projected to climb to 40.9 million tons in 2025 (K₂O equivalent), following an estimated 38.8 million tons in 2024 (K₂O equivalent). In terms of physical product, global potash shipments are forecast to reach a high-end of 75 million tons in 2025, an increase from approximately 72.5 million tons in 2024. The high-end forecast for global potassium chloride demand specifically is 74 million tons for 2025. Key regional indicators include China’s expected demand for potassium chloride reaching a high-end of 18.5 million tons in 2024 and Russia’s potash fertilizer export volume hitting 6.7 million tons in the first half of 2024 alone.
Key Findings in Potash Market
| Market Forecast (2033) | US$ 97.92 billion |
| CAGR | 5.0% |
| Largest Region (2024) | Asia Pacific (38.11%) |
| By Type | Potassium Chloride (53.22%) |
| By End Use | Agriculture (93.35%) |
| Top Drivers |
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| Top Trends |
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| Top Challenges |
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Strategic Production Capacity Expansions Are Reshaping the Global Potash Market Supply Chain
In response to sustained demand signals, producers are undertaking significant capacity expansions. These strategic investments are designed to meet both current and future needs. As a result, world annual potash production capacity was recorded at 65.2 million tons (K₂O equivalent) in 2024. Projections indicate a subsequent increase to 66.6 million tons (K₂O equivalent) in 2025. Correspondingly, global potash production is expected to recover to 73.5 Mt in 2024, demonstrating the industry’s capability to ramp up output in a favorable market.
Specific capital projects provide tangible evidence of this growth in the potash market. For example, the Lao Kaiyuan third MOP unit is slated to introduce 1 million MT per year of production capacity by the end of 2025. Similarly, K+S’s Bethune mine is set to increase its production by 100,000 tons in 2025. Furthermore, the Arab Potash Company (APC) is executing a two-phase expansion; its Northern Expansion Project adds 140,000 tons of annual capacity starting in 2024, while the Eastern Expansion Project will add another 120,000 tons of annual capacity after its 2025 completion, fortifying the supply side of the potash market.
Leading Producers Exhibit Robust Sales Volume Growth in a Favorable Market
Major industry players in the potash market are reporting strong sales volumes, confirming the depth of market demand. Nutrien’s full-year 2025 potash sales volume guidance is a high-end of 14.5 million tons, building on its 13.9 million tons sold in 2024. The company’s quarterly performance supports this outlook, with potash sales volume reaching 4.0 million tons in Q2 2025. In parallel, Mosaic’s full-year potash sales volumes in 2024 were 8.7 million tons, with a strong start to the year reflected in combined sales for January and February 2024 of 1,417,000 tons.
This positive sales trajectory is expected to continue. Mosaic’s Q3 2025 potash sales volume was 2.3 million tons, and its Q4 2025 forecast anticipates a high-end volume of 2.6 million tons. Even after accounting for a production reduction of approximately 250,000 tons in 2024 from operational issues, Mosaic’s performance remains solid. Other market leaders in the potash market are also seeing success; Arab Potash Company (APC) achieved record production volumes of 2,840 thousand tons of potash in 2024. Looking forward, K+S projects its Agriculture customer segment sales volumes will reach a high-end of 7.7 million tons in 2025.
Positive Pricing Dynamics and Key Contracts Bolster Revenue Across the Potash Market
The pricing environment for the potash market remains highly favorable for producers. Crucial contract benchmarks have been set at healthy levels, providing revenue stability. The 2025 China Potash Contract Price was finalized at US$ 346 per ton (CFR terms). Concurrently, the 2025 India Potash Contract Price was established at US$ 349 per ton (CIFFO terms). These agreements with the world’s largest importers signal a stable and profitable outlook for a substantial portion of globally traded potash.
Company-specific and spot market prices further reinforce this positive trend in the potash market. Mosaic’s MOP FOB mine price averaged US$ 271 per ton in Q3 2025, with guidance for Q4 2025 pointing to a high-end of US$ 280 per ton. In Europe, K+S reported an average selling price of €336 per ton in Q2 2025, up from €325 per ton in Q1 2025. Spot market indicators also reflect firmness, with the median price of pelleted potassium in Brazil rising to US$ 305 per ton as of December 2024, and the median Vancouver standard potassium FOB price increasing to US$ 248 per ton during the same month.
Substantial Capital Expenditures Signal Deep Confidence in Long-Term Potash Viability in the Potash Market
The industry’s long-term confidence is powerfully demonstrated through significant capital investment plans. Mosaic has allocated approximately US$ 1.3 billion for total capital expenditures for the full year 2025. Likewise, Nutrien’s capital expenditure guidance for 2025 specifies a low-end of US$ 2.0 billion. European producer K+S anticipates an elevated capital expenditure of €550 million in 2025. Furthermore, K+S allocated an additional €150 million in CapEx in 2025 specifically for its Werra 2060 project and Bethune expansion, underlining its commitment to future production.
These figures are complemented by transformative, large-scale investments. BHP’s approval of a US$ 4.9 billion investment for Stage 2 of its Jansen potash project is a landmark commitment, signaling a bullish long-term outlook on market fundamentals. In a related sector, APC and Albemarle announced a joint investment of US$ 813 million to increase Bromine production capacity, illustrating broader chemical industry growth. APC’s own strategic investments are substantial, with cumulative capital expenditures from 2019 to 2024 totaling US$ 1.3 billion, highlighting a sustained focus on expansion.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Management Drive Significant Margin Expansion for Producers
Producers are successfully translating strong revenue into enhanced profitability through disciplined cost management. Mosaic’s MOP cash cost of production per ton fell to US$ 71 in Q3 2025 from US$ 78 per ton in Q1 2025. Demonstrating industry-leading efficiency, Nutrien’s controllable cash cost of product manufactured was US$ 56 per ton in Q1 2024. These metrics reveal a clear focus on operational excellence as a key competitive advantage in the potash market.
This focus on cost control is directly improving profitability. Mosaic’s Potash Segment Gross Margin per ton reached US$ 104 in Q3 2025, a substantial increase from US$ 61 per ton during the same quarter in 2024. While there is some fluctuation, evidenced by a gross margin per ton of US$ 98 in Q1 2024, the overall trend is positive. When including all production factors, the Mosaic Potash cash production cost per ton was US$ 187 in Q1 2025, a figure that sustains healthy margins in the current pricing environment.
Strategic Supply Agreements and Geopolitics Are Actively Reshaping Global Potash Market Trade
The global potash trade is being reshaped by geopolitical factors and strategic supply agreements. The global potash shipments forecast for 2025 has a conservative low-end of 71 million tons, which accounts for potential market volatility. Trade flows are also influenced by supply constraints from certain regions; for instance, Belarus is expected to export a maximum of 9 million tons of potash in 2024. These dynamics have prompted major importers to secure reliable supply through long-term contracts.
In this context, producers have solidified key supply agreements. ICL’s 2025 contract with China ensures the supply of 750,000 metric tons of potash, which includes an option for an additional 340,000 metric tons. Similarly, the Russian potash company (BPC) finalized a deal with an Indian importer for a December 2025 shipment of 0.65 million tons. ICL also reinforced its position in India with a 2025 agreement to supply 400,000 metric tons to the nation’s largest importer, with an option for an additional 100,000 metric tons.
Diversification Into Specialty Potash Products Creates New High-Value Revenue Streams
Leading producers in the potash market are strategically diversifying their portfolios beyond standard-grade potash to capture higher margins. APC, for example, achieved sales of approximately 165 thousand tons of Potassium Nitrate in 2024, a premium specialty product. The company also enhanced its granular potash capacity by 80,000 tons annually through a new compaction plant commissioned in 2024. Overall U.S. marketable potash production was 400,000 metric tons in 2024, serving both specialty and agricultural needs.
New projects are fueling this strategic pivot. Brazil Potash has already secured binding pre-sale agreements for over 2 million tons of its annual production. A key agreement is a 10-year take-or-pay offtake with Kimia for up to 704,000 tons per year. Meanwhile, Mosaic is innovating through its Biosciences platform, whose products reached 9 million acres of usage globally in 2024. While diversifying, Mosaic maintains its core strength, with total production volume guidance for its Potash segment in 2025 having a low-end of 9.1 million tons.
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Strong Financial Metrics and Innovation Investments Underscore a Highly Profitable Market
The combination of strong demand, favorable pricing, and operational efficiency has generated exceptional financial results in the potash market. Nutrien’s Potash adjusted EBITDA surged to US$ 630 million in Q2 2025 from US$ 472 million in Q2 2024. Mosaic’s Potash segment adjusted EBITDA was US$ 329 million in Q3 2025, a dramatic increase from US$ 180 million in Q3 2024. To optimize its portfolio, Mosaic completed the sale of its Patos de Minas mine for US$ 111 million in October 2025 and its Taquari potash mine for US$ 27 million in November 2025.
Investment in future growth remains a priority. Nutrien’s Research and Development expenses were US$ 124 million for fiscal year 2024. In parallel, Mosaic has a target to launch 5 products from its Biosciences platform in 2025. Furthermore, Mosaic’s Hydrofloat project at Esterhazy, commissioned in July 2025, will add an additional 400,000 tons of annual capacity, blending innovation with production growth. The overall financial health of the sector is captured by APC’s consolidated net profit for fiscal year 2024, which was approximately JD 184 million.
Global Potash Market Major Players:
- Agrium Inc.
- Borealis AG
- Eurochem Group AG
- Helm AG
- Israel Chemicals Ltd.
- JSC Belaruskali
- Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc
- Sinofert Holdings Limited
- Sociedad Química Y Minera De Chile S.A. (SQM)
- The Mosaic Company
- Yara International Asa
- Other Prominent Players
Key Market Segmentation:
By Product
- Potassium Chloride
- Potassium Sulphate
- Potassium Nitrate
By End-use
- Agricultural
- Non-agricultural
By Region
- North America
- Europe
- Asia Pacific
- Middle East and Africa
- South America
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