A third wave of COVID-19, if it occurs, is unlikely to be as severe because the second wave given the extent of spread of coronavirus infections that has already taken place within the country, as consistent with a study.
The study, is supported with mathematical modelling analysis published within the Indian Journal of Medical Research, its highlights is that the emergence of the third wave of coronavirus might be substantially mitigated by the expansion of vaccination.
Presenting a vaccine ramp-up scenario where 40 per cent of the population has received two doses within three months of the second wave peak, and further that the effect of vaccination is to scale back severity of to infection by 60 per cent, the study said it illustrates how vaccination can substantially reduce the general burden during the possible third wave.
Now, considering the hypothesis given by IJMR for an emergence of a full immune escape variant, the study says even if immunity remains lifelong, it is theoretically possible for a new variant to emerge that it is capable of escaping with the immunity induced by previously circulating strains.
The study also says that, this is modelled in a simple way, by assuming that the new variant still has R0 = 2.2, as being equally infectious by the second-wave virus, but as an illustrative example it is capable of re-infecting 50 per cent of the population which are previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
Now the researchers have also mentioned in the study that, the emergence of more transmissible variant, in the same manner as the second wave being driven by a virus with R0=2.2, the emergence of a novel virus is still-higher R0, but by previously data individuals would remain immune and modeled. We have also examined how high R0 would need to be, and for new variant to generate a substantial third wave.
The researchers also noted that, a new and more transmissible variant would have to exceed a high threshold i.e. R0 >4.5 to cause a third wave on its own.
The study also stated that, “In both cases, any third wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave. Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease.”