Will third-wave of COVID-19 hit India?

The second wave has already dampened the country and the impact is still ongoing, will third-wave of COVID-19 hit India?

The third wave currently is in discussion refers to a possible surge in cases at the national level. At present, India’s active cases have come down to 32.25 lakh to 37.45 lakh. If this continues, it is expected that by July, India would reach the same level of case counts as in February. But if the surge increases and continues for one to two months, the country will touch the third wave. Similar to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, as they continue to experience a local surge. However, the districts of Amravati, Sangli and a few others in Maharashtra’s increasing surge can change the direction of the national curve, which would be described as third-wave. Now we will tell you the possibility of a third-wave in India.

1. Mumbai Taskforce says they never said third-wave will come in 2-4 weeks but we need to be prepared

Dr Rahul Pandit, a member of the Mumbai task force was asked, “Are you scaring people and telling them to stay at home by saying a third-wave could hit the state in 2-4 weeks? Are you being alarmist? Or is this a wake-up call?” He replied, “I don’t think we’re being alarmist. Nor we are trying to scare people. Let me put this in the right perspective. The mathematical model predicts a 100-120 day time gap between two waves. But models are models, we need to look at real-life situations. The UK had a gap of fewer than eight weeks. we need to be prepared because we have the delta variant. At no point did we say the third wave will come in two weeks or four weeks. It’s very difficult to guess. We have to go by some mathematical models and then look around the world and see what other waves have been like.”

2. Why are states assuming the third-wave will impact mostly children?

Dr Devi Shetty, a cardiac surgeon and the head of Karnataka’s COVID-19 task force in the editorial urged authorities to vaccinate parents as soon as possible and claimed, ” The third-wave is likely to attack children since most adults are already infected or immunised.  Even if we assume that just 20% of them get infected and five per cent of the infected need critical care, we need 1.65 lakh ICU beds.” The Indian Academy of Paediatrics stated, “A very small percentage of infected children may develop the moderate-severe disease. If there is a massive increase in the overall numbers of infected individuals, a large number of children with moderate-severe disease may be seen.”

3. WHO-AIIMS survey reveals that third-wave will not pose threat to children

A joint study by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) showed that third-wave will not affect children much. Dr Puneet Mishra, Professor of Community Medicine at AIIMS said, “These areas in Delhi and NCR (Faridabad) may have higher seroprevalence after the intense second wave. Probably, these levels of seroprevalence may be protective against third-wave.” The survey said, “In congested urban areas of Delhi since children already have high seroprevalence, opening schools, may after all not be a very risky proposition. During the second wave, the NCR region of Faridabad has a seroprevalence of 59.3 per cent, which could be considered high compared to previous national surveys.”

4. Health Experts says, ” India should brace for third-wave of COVID-19 by October

According to a Reuters poll of medical experts, the third wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit India by October and although it will be better controlled than the latest outbreak the pandemic will remain a public health threat for at least another year. The June 3-17 snap survey of 40 healthcare specialist, doctors, scientists, virologist, epidemiologist and professors from around the world, who ventured a prediction, over 85% of respondents which 21 or 24 said the next wave will hit by October, including three who forecast it as early as August and 12 in September. The remaining three said between November and February.

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