Can Donald Trump take over the Panama Canal?

President-elect Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that his administration might attempt to “take back” the Panama Canal has ignited international debate. This 50-mile-long waterway, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is not just a marvel of engineering but also a cornerstone of global commerce, facilitating around 5% of world trade.

Constructed by the United States in the early 1900s, the canal dramatically transformed maritime shipping by eliminating the need for treacherous voyages around South America. However, U.S. control ended in 1999 following the Torrijos-Carter Treaties, which symbolized a significant step toward respecting Panama’s sovereignty. Since then, Panama has successfully managed the canal, with revenues contributing roughly 20% to its national budget.

Trump’s remarks were reportedly triggered by recent challenges facing the canal, including severe droughts in 2023 that limited daily ship crossings and increased transit fees. While these issues are notable, his suggestion of reclaiming the canal is little more than political bluster when weighed against the realities of law and logistics.

Revisiting U.S. control of the canal would face colossal legal hurdles. The Torrijos-Carter Treaties, ratified by both nations, permanently transferred control to Panama. Any effort to reverse this would violate these agreements, likely triggering a global diplomatic backlash and breaching international law.

Additionally, a U.S. president cannot single-handedly invalidate international treaties. Such a move would require congressional approval—an unlikely prospect given the geopolitical fallout that would follow.

Even if the legal barriers weren’t insurmountable, a physical takeover of the canal is logistically implausible. Panama has full sovereignty over the canal and its surrounding areas, with its own security forces in place to protect this critical infrastructure. Any military intervention to seize control would disrupt global shipping lanes, damage the global economy, and alienate U.S. allies, including China, Japan, and European nations, which heavily rely on the canal for trade.

Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino has already firmly rejected Trump’s comments, emphasizing that the canal “belongs to Panama and will continue to belong to Panama.” Notably, even Mulino—a conservative leader often aligned with Trump on other matters—has denounced the idea, highlighting the broad international and domestic consensus against such a move.

Ultimately, Trump’s comments seem to serve as political posturing rather than a serious policy proposal. The intricate network of international laws, treaties, and economic dependencies makes any attempt to “take back” the Panama Canal practically and legally impossible.

However, such rhetoric risks straining U.S.-Panama relations and undermining America’s standing in Latin America. At a time when diplomatic ties are already delicate, Trump’s remarks might do more harm than good, raising questions about how his administration plans to navigate foreign policy challenges moving forward.

In short, while the Panama Canal remains a vital global asset, any suggestion of reclaiming it is little more than an exercise in political theatrics with no realistic pathway to fruition.

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